By Sam Frescoe,
Veteran’s Recall
http://veterans-recall.blogspot.com/
I just read an article about
demands being made by student activists of Mizzou.
While reading I saw precious little about demands (meaning the actual list of
demands was not published), and an over-amount of editorial commentary (meaning
I could hear the voices of the AP reporters over the roar of popup ad jingles).
However, there was a statement that did catch my eye. The statement
was in the form of a claim: “About 71 percent of white students at Missouri's
Columbia campus graduate within six years, compared to about 55 percent of
black students.”
Imagine my excitement. I was
looking at a comparison of estimated generalizations of two specific particulars
being passed off as a claim. (And, within the context of Mizzou student activist
demands, no less.) Perhaps examining some facts might bring me back down to
earth? Here I go!
My Assumptions
To begin an examination I needed
to further frame the context. To that end I decided to assume an allegation was
present: During an unspecified period, MU reprised against black students by
disproportionately graduating white students as shown by the following evidence:
“About 71 percent of white students at Missouri's Columbia campus graduate
within six years, compared to about 55 percent of black students.”
Just the Facts
Through simple Google searches
of open source data I was able to collect the following information. Given the
sources of the information, I am comfortable at this point calling the data
factual. However, it is worth noting that some data is from the UM system.
The six-year
rate for Mizzou is 68.7% percent compared to the national average of 57.7
percent and state average of 55.2 percent.
2014 Enrollment
Ethnicity: 77% white and 7% black
2014 State Demographics:
83.5% white, 11.8% black
Analysis #1
When comparing the claim against
the 6-year graduation rates of Mizzou, national, and state students the
following conclusions seem clear.
First, white students are graduating at a greater rate than
the Mizzou (+2.3%), national (+13.3%), and state (+15.8%) rates.
Second, black students are graduating below the Mizzou
(-13.7%) and close to the national (-2.7%) and state (-0.2%) rates.
This seems to suggest that white
students typically perform above average; while, black students typically
perform at the average. However, there is not enough data to isolate particular
factors that may be driving this result.
Analysis #2
When comparing the claim against
2014 enrollment rates the following conclusion seem clear.
The white graduation rate is less than the white enrollment
rate by -6%.
The black graduation rate exceeds the black enrollment rate by
+48%.
This seems to suggest that black
students are much more likely to graduate than white students. Again, there is
not enough data to isolate particular factors that may be driving this result.
Analysis #3
I wonder what happens when I compare
the Mizzou black and white populations against state demographics. According to
2014 census data, Missouri had 715,504 (11.8% of population) blacks and
5,063,097 (83.5%) whites. During the same year, Mizzou enrolled 2,553 (7.2% of
students) blacks and 27,073 (76.4%) whites.
Evaluating this data, using state data as the baseline, I can
see the following results. Looking at linear changes, the Mizzou black
population is 4.8% lower than the state population. Whereas, the Mizzou white
population is 7.1% lower than the state population.
This seems to suggest the
demographics of Mizzou reflect the demographics of the state it serves.
Going Forward
Now, let’s answer the
allegation.
Given the data provided, the determination
of the allegation is “indeterminate” (neither “substantiated” nor
“unsubstantiated”). However, for the same reason, further investigation is
required to obtain and analyze the appropriate data sets to fully examine the
allegation. I considered the following reasons prior to arriving at my
conclusion.
First, the supporting evidence is factually wrong. At best
it’s “kinda” close (meaning it’s wrong). At worst, it’s a fabrication (a lie) with
a CYA modifier (still a lie).
Second, the phrases “reprised” and “by disproportionately
graduating” implies motivation and intentional actions by authorities.
Obviously, the analysis I provided did not address these issues in any way.
Third, it is not clear that race is a driving factor. The
data seems to show the following.
·
White students are graduating in greater numbers
than black students. In my opinion, this may be caused by the fact that there
are 10x as many white students as black students.
·
Black students seem to be graduating at or near
the national and state average graduation rates.
·
At the six-year mark, black students seem to be
8x more likely to graduate than white students.
·
Mizzou seems to be sufficiently accessible to
the state population it is intended to serve.
·
Examination of data relating to other factors
was not accomplished. The data was not available at the time of evaluation.
In my Opinion
Check the Facts & Keep on
Thinking – This should be on a bold color t-shirt with an American flag (better
yet, an America Minuteman with a musket and flag) in the background.
I would like to commend the
academic performance of the “black student” at Mizzou. Based on the evaluations
presented in this post, I see nothing to suggest that black students are more
or less capable than their national or state peers. Additionally, I see that a
typical black student at Mizzou is much more likely to earn their degree in the
sixth year than a typical white student.
I would like to note the
successes of the “white student” at Mizzou. Based on the evaluations presented
in this post, I see nothing to suggest that white students are less capable
than their national or state peers. However, there seems to be an indication
that your desire to graduate may not be up to par at the sixth year.
Without a doubt, I would
recommend further analysis before rendering a “substantiated” or
“unsubstantiated” determination of the allegation. Factors describing specific
conduct of Mizzou were not considered. Additionally, specific factors of known
social, financial, and economic influences were not considered.
Your View
Obviously, the issues tackled in
this post are far from settled.
I invite you to tell me what you
believe at samfrescoe@gmail.com. I am
looking forward to addressing your comments and furthering our American
discourse. Thank you. – Sam Frescoe
Postscript
To the AP and Huffpost College,…
What was the point of the article? During a quick review of
the article I was able to identify 28 claims, seven opinions (not all of them
yours), and only one reference to a verifiable data set.
If this was intended as an investigative report, then I have
to wonder why you published the article at all. How did you determine that a
dean from a unique and different east coast university had a qualified opinion
on the events at Mizzou? Can you logically connect the events at Mizzou with
Dean Fenwick, or vice versa, without throwing the race card?
Is it common practice to purposefully withhold original factual
information? Am I supposed to accept that everything you have to say is true
beyond doubt because you are the AP? Before answering, please consider that
your local contributor is an Editorial editor.
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